Nigeria is now one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest markets for small-scale solar, as households and businesses turn to renewable power to escape high electricity tariffs and an unstable national grid, according to a new report by BloombergNEF.
The research, published on Wednesday in Sub-Saharan Africa Clean Energy Market Outlook 2026, tracked clean energy trends across 16 markets in the region. It found that clean energy investment hit a record $13.5 billion in 2025, with Nigeria singled out as a key driver of small-scale solar growth.
The report says economics, not climate policy, is now the main force behind the region’s energy shift. Soaring power prices in Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya have pushed consumers and companies to seek cheaper, more reliable alternatives to grid supply and diesel generators.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, 13 gigawatts of new solar, wind and battery capacity was installed in 2025. BloombergNEF projects annual additions will rise to 29GW by 2030. Investment in small-scale solar alone more than doubled over the year to $8.5 billion.
Both large-scale renewable projects and rooftop solar-plus-battery systems are increasingly replacing petrol and diesel generators for homes and businesses, as costs continue to fall and payback periods shorten.
Off-grid solutions were also flagged as critical for closing the electricity access gap. More than 560 million people in the region still lacked reliable power in 2025, the report noted.
The region is also becoming a major destination for Chinese solar exports. Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 10.1% of China’s solar exports in Q1 2026, up from 4.9% in the same period a year earlier.
In Nigeria, adoption is accelerating across households, businesses, schools, health centres and communities. Solar photovoltaic systems, battery storage and mini-grids are being deployed to cut reliance on the grid and on costly fuel-powered generators.
The shift is driven by bottom-line considerations. With businesses facing frequent outages and high operating costs, solar is increasingly viewed as a long-term cost-saving investment rather than just a green option.
That trend aligns with growing government and donor focus on decentralised energy. Federal initiatives and development partners are backing solar home systems, mini-grids and other off-grid technologies to reach underserved communities.
The World Bank recently approved a 2026-2032 partnership strategy for Nigeria that prioritises energy access and private investment in the power sector, further underlining the focus on renewables.
Evidence from rural mini-grids in Nigeria and Kenya shows added benefits beyond power supply, including higher productivity for small businesses, longer trading hours, and less exposure to fuel price swings.
Despite the momentum, BloombergNEF warned that Africa’s electricity deficit remains huge. Unreliable supply continues to constrain industrial growth, job creation and economic expansion.
For Nigeria, the expanding solar market offers major potential given its population size and solar resources. But analysts say sustaining growth will require consistent policy, affordable financing, quality standards and strong consumer protection to attract long-term capital.
The report concludes that Nigeria’s clean energy transition is likely to be shaped more by daily economic pressure than by climate pledges. With grid tariffs rising and generator costs remaining a heavy burden, solar power is becoming a financial necessity for millions.
BloombergNEF expects falling equipment costs, rising demand for reliable electricity, and more private capital to keep driving the region’s clean energy rollout through the end of the decade.
